December Aluminum Extrusion Exports Fell Over 40% MoM, Likely to Remain Weak in the Short Term [SMM Analysis]

Published: Jan 22, 2025 16:40

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[SMM Analysis: Aluminum Extrusion Exports Pulled Back as Expected in December, Short-Term Decline Likely to Persist] SMM, January 22: According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) totaled 74,100 mt in December 2024, down 40.04% MoM and 16.58% YoY. The decline was mainly attributed to the Ministry of Finance's announcement on November 15 to cancel the aluminum semis export tax rebate policy starting December 1, which led enterprises to rush to meet deadlines in November, overdrawing subsequent export volumes.

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SMM, January 22:

According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) in December 2024 totaled 74,100 mt, down 40.04% MoM and 16.58% YoY. The decline was mainly due to the Ministry of Finance's announcement on November 15 to cancel the aluminum semis export tax rebate policy starting December 1, leading to a rush to meet deadlines in November that overdrew subsequent export volumes.

Among export registration locations, the top three provinces in December were Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu. Chongqing saw a surge in export volumes, while other provinces experienced significant declines.

For export destinations, Vietnam ranked first in December, accounting for 10% of exports, followed by Israel at 8% and the Philippines at 5%.

In summary, the cancellation of the aluminum semis export tax rebate policy in December led to a rush in November, causing a significant pullback in December export volumes. Currently, SMM has learned that some companies, concerned about potential overseas tariff hikes, are still actively producing export orders, but the scale remains limited and cannot offset the overall downward trend in export volumes. January aluminum semis exports are expected to continue weakening MoM, and attention should be paid to changes in overseas aluminum semis tariffs.

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Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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